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PM Morrison Fires Starting Pistol On Election Campaign


Australian political leaders make first pitches to voters after Prime Minister Morrison set the date of the general election for May 21.

  • Morrison speaks in Gilmore (NSW) while Labour leader Albanese is in Bass (Tasmania). Gilmore is a seat held by Labour's Fiona Phillips, who won it from the Liberals by a margin of 2.6pp. Bass is the most marginal seat in the country, currently held by Liberal Bridget Archer.
  • The ruling Liberal-National Coalition has been consistently trailing Labour in recent polls but was in a similar situation ahead of the 2019 election and managed to clinch victory back then.
  • Betting markets see Labour taking most seats as the most likely outcome, as illustrated in the PredictIt chart attached below. Per Smarkets calculations, the implied chance of Labour forming a majority government is nearly 60%.

Fig. 1: Who will win the most seats in the 2022 Australian federal election?

Source: PredictIt

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