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Free AccessPM Morrison Fires Starting Pistol On Election Campaign
Australian political leaders make first pitches to voters after Prime Minister Morrison set the date of the general election for May 21.
- Morrison speaks in Gilmore (NSW) while Labour leader Albanese is in Bass (Tasmania). Gilmore is a seat held by Labour's Fiona Phillips, who won it from the Liberals by a margin of 2.6pp. Bass is the most marginal seat in the country, currently held by Liberal Bridget Archer.
- The ruling Liberal-National Coalition has been consistently trailing Labour in recent polls but was in a similar situation ahead of the 2019 election and managed to clinch victory back then.
- Betting markets see Labour taking most seats as the most likely outcome, as illustrated in the PredictIt chart attached below. Per Smarkets calculations, the implied chance of Labour forming a majority government is nearly 60%.
Fig. 1: Who will win the most seats in the 2022 Australian federal election?
Source: PredictIt
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.