Free Trial
JGBS

Curve Steepens, 20s Top 1%

JGBS

40-Year Supply Due At Testing Time

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

PM's Party Holds Large Lead, But Phone Tapping Scandal Could Hit Support

GREECE

Prime Minister Kuriakos Mitsotakis' centre-right New Democracy (ND) party holds a sizable (albeit narrowing) lead in opinion polling, but the ongoing scandal over the Greek security services' tapping of an opposition leaders' phone could damage the gov'ts credibility and hit ND support.

  • In July 2022, ND averaged 36.5% support, above the 27.3% averaged by the main opposition leftist Syriza. Support for ND has been steadily declining over the past two years, since the party's peak support at over 50% at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in mid-2020.
  • While the full scale of the scandal over the tapping of PASOK leader Nikos Androulakis' phone is not yet clear, there is a tailrisk prospect that it damages the gov'ts credibility enough to force a snap election (ND holds 157 seats in the 300-member Parliament and therefore an early election is not a given).
  • At present, it is unlikely that the ND would be able to retain its majority given that the changes to the electoral system enacted by the gov't in 2020 do not come into force until the election after next. As such, forming a gov't could see PASOK as the kingmaker, combining with Syriza or ND to form a leftist or centrist coalition, or for ND to team up with the right-wing/far-right parties in Parliament.
Chart 1. Greek Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Source: ProRata, Pulse RC, Alco, GPO, MRB, Marc, Metron Analysis, MNI

259 words

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MarketNews.com

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.

Prime Minister Kuriakos Mitsotakis' centre-right New Democracy (ND) party holds a sizable (albeit narrowing) lead in opinion polling, but the ongoing scandal over the Greek security services' tapping of an opposition leaders' phone could damage the gov'ts credibility and hit ND support.

  • In July 2022, ND averaged 36.5% support, above the 27.3% averaged by the main opposition leftist Syriza. Support for ND has been steadily declining over the past two years, since the party's peak support at over 50% at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in mid-2020.
  • While the full scale of the scandal over the tapping of PASOK leader Nikos Androulakis' phone is not yet clear, there is a tailrisk prospect that it damages the gov'ts credibility enough to force a snap election (ND holds 157 seats in the 300-member Parliament and therefore an early election is not a given).
  • At present, it is unlikely that the ND would be able to retain its majority given that the changes to the electoral system enacted by the gov't in 2020 do not come into force until the election after next. As such, forming a gov't could see PASOK as the kingmaker, combining with Syriza or ND to form a leftist or centrist coalition, or for ND to team up with the right-wing/far-right parties in Parliament.
Chart 1. Greek Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Source: ProRata, Pulse RC, Alco, GPO, MRB, Marc, Metron Analysis, MNI