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PM's Soc Dems Retain Polling Lead As Likely NATO Application Nears

SWEDEN

Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson's centre-left Social Democrats retain their sizeable opinion polling lead ahead of what is anticipated to be her gov'ts likely application to join NATO alongside Finland ahead of the June NATO leaders' summit.

  • Andersson's party leads in polls with around 29-32% support, well ahead of the second-placed centre-right Moderates on around 19-22%. The next legislative election takes place on 11 September of this year.
  • Polling continues to show the parties of the left and centre-left (Social Democrats, Left Party, Greens) retaining a lead of a cumulative 6-8% over those of the right (Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats, Liberals).
  • However, the evident divisions between Andersson's party and most notably the Left, which resigned from former PM Stefan Lofven's gov't over a rent controls dispute, could hinder the PM's ability to form a coalition after the election. This could result in Andersson leading another minority administration if she cannot win support from the Greens as well as drawing over the pro-business Liberals or agrarian Centre Party to join an SD-led gov't.
  • The Left has voiced opposition to NATO membership for Sweden and called for a referendum on membership, a plan dismissed by Andersson.
Chart 1. Sweden General Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Source: Novus, Demoskop, Sifo, Ipsos, SKOP, Sentio, SCB, MNI. N.B. Each dot indivates individual polling result.

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