PM To Deliver Statement To Commons On Ukraine, Energy, Partygate ~1530BST

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to deliver a statement to the House of Commons at around 1530BST (1030ET, 1630CET) this afternoon focusing on the war in Ukraine, the UK's energy security strategy, and the investigations into COVID-19 rule breaking at 10 Downing Street, known as 'partygate'.

• The statement will be Johnson's first appearance in the Commons since he and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak were served with fixed penalty notices for breaches of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions in 2020.
• While the penalty in iteslf does not compel Johnson to resign, there is the prospect that the opposition seeks to put forward a motion that Johnson has held the House in contempt by misleading the House in previous comments stating that he had done nothing wrong. Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle could also allow MPs to vote on referring the PM to a formal parliamentary investigation.
• Just weeks ahead of the 5 May local elections in England, pressure is back on the PM with polling support for his Conservative party falling and rumours that a poor performance in the 5 May vote could spur opponents in the party to challenge his leadership.
• Data from Smarkets shows political bettors giving Johnson a 32.8% probability that he will leave office in 2022, up from 22.7% on 9 April. The prospect of him leaving office in 2024 or beyond is down from 51.6% on 12 April to 44.6% at the time of writing.