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PMI Pushes BoE Terminal Pricing Up 15+bp, Near Recent High

STIR
Driven by this morning's PMI beat, BoE terminal rate pricing is up over 15bp on the session, pointing to 63bp of further hikes by September 2023 (Bank rate of 4.63%).
  • That's still about 5bp off the Feb 14 peak seen after US CPI and UK jobs/wage data (and before reversing the following day on softer-than-expected UK CPI numbers).
  • 42bp of cumulative hikes are priced in by the May meeting, up 7bp on the day. This implies 25bp fully priced for March, with about 2/3 prob of a further 25bp in May.

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