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PMI Round-Trip For ECB and BoE Implied Rates

STIR

Surprisingly strong flash composite PMIs this morning helped ECB and BoE hike pricing bounce from session lows then rise slightly on the day, but moved back at flat and now heading slightly softer again.

  • ECB terminal Depo rate pricing -0.1bp to 3.83% (session range of 3.80-3.86%) for October; BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing -0.5bp to 4.97% (range of 4.95-5.00%) for September.
  • 25bp hikes still fully priced for both May meetings, with a decent (~30%) chance of a 50bp ECB hike implied.

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