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Points To Watch For In Rogers’ Remarks

CANADA
  • The BoC yesterday held rates as expected but there were some conflicting changes within the statement:
  • i) The way it based yesterday’s pause on the grounds of January’s guidance saw arguably a subtle shift to put distance from that January shift before the next meeting in April with its MPR, potentially lowering the bar for a hike.
  • ii) However, it also dropped the description of the economy being in excess demand, a regular factor of prior statements and included twice in January. Whilst expected from a trend sense – the Bank has previously laid out a projection of below trend growth allowing supply to catch up to demand – the timing is likely a dovish steer given the external rates backdrop.
  • There’s a risk of reading too much into both points but we watch to see if Rogers leans in either direction with upcoming remarks at 1340ET.
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