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POLAND: Flash CPI Data On Tap

POLAND
  • Tensions within the governing coalition continue to simmer as the Left and the centre-right Third Way are pulling in opposite directions amid ongoing talks on a draft bill introducing civil partnerships. The Left is increasingly divided amid a stand-off between Left Together, which decided not to enter the government but supported it in a confidence vote and provides votes on an ad hoc basis, and the New Left, whose representatives do hold cabinet portfolios.
  • Statistics Poland will release the flash reading of CPI for the month of May at 09:00BST/10:00CEST. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey is +2.6% Y/Y, which would mean that inflation stayed within the NBP's +/-1pp tolerance band around the +2.5% target. This comes just ahead of the central bank's next rate decision, due to be announced on Wednesday and followed by a press conference on Thursday. Reminder that this time around the NBP will have a new macroeconomic projection, which may shed some more light on the inflation and rate outlook.
  • Deputy Family, Labour and Social Policy Minister Sebastian Gajewski said that inflation is unlikely to exceed +5% Y/Y in 1H2024, which means that there will be no need for a second pension hike this year. The Ministry is currently working on legislation that would enshrine this mechanism in law and require the government to implement a second increase in pensions if inflation in the first half of a given year is above +5% Y/Y.
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