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POLAND: Governor Glapinski Takes Spotlight

POLAND
  • NBP Governor Adam Glapinski will hold a press conference this afternoon (14:00BST/15:00CEST) after the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) announced its widely expected decision to keep interest rates on hold. The statement included updated CPI and GDP forecasts, with the inflation outlook for 2025 revised significantly higher, even as the projections for 2024 and 2026 were revised marginally lower. This may reflect expectations that the partial withdrawal of energy price caps may bring about a short-term spike in headline inflation, followed by a quicker normalisation. We expect wage pressures to be the NBP's main source of concern going forward, given the temporary nature of the impact of the increase in administered energy prices.
  • Local media outlets reported that Poland is planning to severely tighten checks at the largest rail border crossing with Belarus serving as the main gateway for Chinese railborne exports into Europe. The measure is intended to leverage the trade interests of major stakeholders (both in China and the EU), who could help persuade Misk to abandon attempts to destabilise the Polish border by routing migration flows towards it. Sources told DGP that Belarussian President Lukashenko called a special meeting of his Security Council to discuss the matter, with the article noting that if Latvia and Lithuania deploy similar measures, it could have significant economic consequences for his regime.
  • The regional assembly in Lesser Poland is expected to make the sixth attempt to elect the speaker today. The mutiny of several Law and Justice (PiS) deputies has drawn unusual attention as it reflects tensions within the main opposition party.

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