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POLAND: ING Expect Annual Consumption Growth to Slow in H2

POLAND
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  • ING note that real wage growth has slowed somewhat due to the jump in inflation since July (higher energy and gas bills) and slightly slower nominal wage growth. At the same time, the propensity to save remains elevated. Therefore, they expect annual consumption growth to slow down in the second half of the year compared to the first half.
  • For 2024 as a whole, ING say consumption will remain the main driver of economic growth and GDP growth should reach 3%, but August data from trade, industry and construction means that downside risks to this forecast are rising. Some support for GDP growth in the second half will come from an increase in military spending and post-flood reconstruction, ING add.
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  • ING note that real wage growth has slowed somewhat due to the jump in inflation since July (higher energy and gas bills) and slightly slower nominal wage growth. At the same time, the propensity to save remains elevated. Therefore, they expect annual consumption growth to slow down in the second half of the year compared to the first half.
  • For 2024 as a whole, ING say consumption will remain the main driver of economic growth and GDP growth should reach 3%, but August data from trade, industry and construction means that downside risks to this forecast are rising. Some support for GDP growth in the second half will come from an increase in military spending and post-flood reconstruction, ING add.