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POLAND: MPC's Kotecki Sees Room For Cuts In '25, Plays Down Off'l Fwd Guidance

POLAND
  • MPC's Ludwik Kotecki told Business Insider that the central bank may start a debate about gradual monetary policy easing next year. He said that Governor Adam Glapinski may have misspoken when he said that such moves were off the table until 2026. According to the official, it seems that only the Governor holds this view and "another interpretation or opinion which has emerged in the NBP suggests that it was a mistake, that perhaps [the Governor] was referring to a different year." Still, he stressed that only the Governor could clarify his forward guidance. Kotecki said that wage growth rather than administered energy price hikes should be the main source of concern for the MPC at this stage, adding that a "responsible and serious" discussion of rate cuts could start when inflation eases to around +3%-4% Y/Y, while refusing to speculate on the expected magnitude of cuts. He said that he proposed using alternative monetary policy tools to tighten policy without raising rates amid the need to deal with issues such as significant over-liquidity in the banking sector and in July the Council received first analyses of the implications of his ideas.
  • Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said that Poland's defence spending will increase to 5% of GDP next year, keeping the first place among NATO member states.
  • Statistics Poland will release final CPI data at 09:00BST/10:00CEST after the flash reading suggested that inflation inched higher to +2.6% Y/Y in June. Official data on core inflation will be published by the central bank tomorrow afternoon. Elsewhere, current account balance and trade balance for the month of May are due at 13:00BST/14:00CEST.
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