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POLAND: NBP Governor Glapinski Says Debate On Cuts Might Be Possible Before 2026

POLAND
  • NBP Governor Adam Glapinski softened his hawkish rhetoric and stressed the conditionality of any forward guidance. The official told PAP newswire that "it cannot be ruled out that the economic situation will develop in such a direction that a discussion on monetary policy adjustment will be warranted sooner than in 2026." Conditions for such a discussion will be ripe "when we are certain that inflation has peaked and forecasts indicate that it is declining permanently towards the target." Glapinski replied to questions submitted by PAP straight after the Monetary Policy Council's (MPC's) August meeting, which is traditionally more about taking stock of the situation and does not produce a rate decision. As a reminder, during his presser in July Glapinski unexpectedly guided that rates are unlikely to change before 2026 - an assertion later downplayed by several MPC members. The zloty weakened as PAP circulated Glapinski's comments yesterday afternoon.
  • The Constitutional Tribunal ruled that the ongoing parliamentary probe into Governor Glapinski's conduct is unconstitutional. Senior ruling coalition members reiterated that they deem it non-binding, but it may further complicate the investigation.
  • Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives in Poland today in the first visit by an Indian leader in 45 years. Modi will then travel to Ukraine on Friday.
  • Statistics Poland will release the first batch of economic activity data (wages, employment, industrial output and PPI) for July at 09:00BST/10:00CEST. The second batch (construction output and retail sales) will hit the wires tomorrow morning.
  • Poland will offer PLN5bn-9bn of OK0426, DS0727, PS0729, WZ0330, DS1034, IZ0836 and WS0437 bonds at an auction today.
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