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POLAND: NBP's Kotecki Sees Room For Serious Rate-Cut Debate In Mar '25

POLAND
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  • NBP's Ludwik Kotecki told Business Insider that the cost of the recent floods should be around 1% of GDP, suggesting that it should not have significant macroeconomic implications. He said that the expansive 2025 budget does not bring rate cuts any closer, but other factors (especially inflation and the inflation outlook) will prevail. Against this backdrop, in his view the earliest moment for a serious discussion about rate cuts will be March - even as this doesn't mean that the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) will actually lower rates at this point.
  • Finance Minister Andrzej Domanski told Radio Zet that floods increase the probability that the 2024 budget will need to be revised, but the final decision will be made within two weeks. He added that the government will adopt a package of aid measures for the victims of the flooding as soon as this week.
  • National Electoral Commission (PKW) chief Szymon Marciniak told money.pl that he was considering resignation due to the way in which the Commission makes decisions. He admitted that the main opposition Law and Justice (PiS) will almost certainly lose its subsidy in this parliamentary term.
  • Statistics Poland will release the second batch of economic activity data for August at 09:00BST/10:00CEST:
    • retail sales (BBG estimate: +3.7% Y/Y)
    • construction output (BBG estimate: -7.1% Y/Y)
  • The NBP will publish August money supply data at 13:00BST/14:00CEST.
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  • NBP's Ludwik Kotecki told Business Insider that the cost of the recent floods should be around 1% of GDP, suggesting that it should not have significant macroeconomic implications. He said that the expansive 2025 budget does not bring rate cuts any closer, but other factors (especially inflation and the inflation outlook) will prevail. Against this backdrop, in his view the earliest moment for a serious discussion about rate cuts will be March - even as this doesn't mean that the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) will actually lower rates at this point.
  • Finance Minister Andrzej Domanski told Radio Zet that floods increase the probability that the 2024 budget will need to be revised, but the final decision will be made within two weeks. He added that the government will adopt a package of aid measures for the victims of the flooding as soon as this week.
  • National Electoral Commission (PKW) chief Szymon Marciniak told money.pl that he was considering resignation due to the way in which the Commission makes decisions. He admitted that the main opposition Law and Justice (PiS) will almost certainly lose its subsidy in this parliamentary term.
  • Statistics Poland will release the second batch of economic activity data for August at 09:00BST/10:00CEST:
    • retail sales (BBG estimate: +3.7% Y/Y)
    • construction output (BBG estimate: -7.1% Y/Y)
  • The NBP will publish August money supply data at 13:00BST/14:00CEST.