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POLAND: Pekao Warn Tobacco Excise Tax Hike Could Boost CPI

POLAND
  • Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said that several thousand people registered to join the Ukrainian Legion, a newly formed voluntary military unit. Poland will train and equip the volunteers, granting them the right to return to Poland after serving on the frontline in Ukraine. Asked whether there is a possibility to cut Hungary's EU presidency short, the Minister also said that there are some "creative" ideas on how to pressure Budapest, but he didn't want to give them away too early. An unidentified diplomat told Money.pl that if not for Hungary's veto, Poland could be reimbursed by the EU for around half of the EUR4.5bn of aid it has provided to Ukraine.
  • Pekao wrote that the Finance Ministry's plan to increase excise tax on tobacco products (by 25% on cigarettes and by 75% on e-cigarettes) could push CPI inflation higher by 0.15pp and core inflation by 0.25pp next year, which would reduce the probability of the NBP cutting rates in 2025. Pekao already expect the central bank to keep rates on hold until 2026.
  • PAP reported that the parliamentary Constitutional Accountability Committee (ODK) may meet on July 24 to discuss the initial proposal to probe NBP Governor Adam Glapinski. The committee's head Zdzislaw Gawlik said that the panel has not received any response or confirmation that the Governor received the letter notifying him of the investigation.
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