Poland's Duda Raises Tensions With Comments On Nuclear Posture

Polish President Andrzej Duda said in an interview today that Poland is “ready” to host nuclear weapons on its territory - A move which, although unlikely, would dramatically shrink the nuclear buffer zone between Russia and NATO. The remarks, taken with other recent comments from Moscow and Beijing suggests that nuclear risk may be increasing.

• Duda told Fakt: “Recently [Russia] has been relocating its nuclear weapons to Belarus… If our allies decide to deploy nuclear weapons as part of nuclear sharing also on our territory to strengthen the security of NATO's eastern flank, we are ready for it.”
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, likely responding to Duda’s comments ratcheted-up nuclear rhetoric this morning.
• MNI's Political Risk team noted on April 16 that, according to DW, China may have “weakened” it’s stance regarding Russia’s nuclear force posture – leading to concerns that Beijing may refrain from pressing Moscow to dial down nuclear rhetoric during a period of heightened tensions.
• Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies notes: “NATO has deployed nuclear weapons at six air bases," in Belgium, Germany, Italy x2, The Netherlands and Turkey... "In theory, up to 392 bombs can be stored on these sites."
• If NATO were to station nuclear weapons in Poland, it would become the eastern-most nuclear outpost of the alliance. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace notes: “Since summer 2023, Russian tactical nuclear weapons—or at the very least, their components—have been deployed in Belarus.”

Figure 1: Nuclear Weapons in Europe

Source: FT, Council on Foreign Relations