POWER
Poland’s 4Q25 contract has rebounded from the previous session to be supported by gains EU ETS, while losses in European coal kept gains capped. Closer in, average temperatures in Warsaw have been revised up, with spot prices likely to be elevated for the remainder of this week as wind is expected to steadily fall over 19-21 March.
- Poland’s 4Q25 baseload power settled at PLN437.63/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN435/MWh on 17 March, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
- EUA DEC 25 up 1.2% at 70.92 EUR/MT
- Rotterdam Coal APR 25 down 0.5% at 95.85 USD/MT
- Despite rebounding, the contract has been on a general downward trend since peaking on 10 February at PLN476.30/MWh.
- The 4Q25 contract traded 4 times in 5 lots from 20 lots exchanged in the previous session. Liquidity for the product dropped to its lowest level since 28 February.
- The contract opened at PLN437/MWh – the low for the day – before rising to a daily high of PLN438/MWh in the middle of the session and ending the session at that level.
- Average temperatures in Warsaw were revised higher for most days over 19-23 March by as much as 2.5C, with temperatures expected to reach as high as 13C on 25 March.
- Closer in, the day-ahead rebounded for Wednesday delivery at PLN413.33/MWh from PLN349.79/MWh for Tuesday as Polish wind is expected at a 25% load factor tomorrow from 41% today.
- Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be at a 14% load factor on 20 March (Thurs) – which could support prices.
- Wind will then drop further to a 9% load factor on 21 March.
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