POWER
Poland’s March climbed for the fourth consecutive session to reach another fresh high on the back of upward price moves in EU ETS, offsetting declines in EU coal, with below-seasonal temperatures in Warsaw also supporting. Polish wind is anticipated to be higher over 11-12 February compared to 13-14 February which may lead to elevated delivery prices towards the end of this week.
- Poland’s March baseload power settled at PLN489.51/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN473.57/MWh on 7 February, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
- The contract reached a fresh all-time high, surpassing its previous high on 7 February.
- EUA DEC 25 up 1.2% at 83.26 EUR/MT
- Rotterdam Coal MAR 25 down 0.2% at 104 USD/MT at 14:18 GMT
- The March contract traded 15 times in 22 lots from 8 lots exchanged in the previous session. This is the highest amount of liquidity since at least the 12 December 2024.
- The contract opened at PLN484/MWh – the daily low – before steadily rising to a daily high of PLN490/MWh and ending the session at PLN488.05/MWh.
- Average temperatures in Warsaw are seen below the seasonal average over 11-24 February at between -0.25C and -7.8C compared to the 30-year norm of around 0-1C over the same period.
- Closer in, the day-ahead dropped to PLN529.90/MWh for Tuesday delivery from PLN532.25/MWh for Monday as wind is expected at a 31% load factor tomorrow from 22% today.
- However, average temperatures in Warsaw are anticipated to drop to -4.75C tomorrow from -3.85C today – which kept losses somewhat limited.
- Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be at a 35% load factor on 12 February (Wed) – likely dropping prices from the previous session.
- Wind will then be between 18-25% load factors over 13-14 February.
The unplanned outage at Poland’s 910MW Jaworzno 2 coal plant has been extended to 13 February from 12 February, however, the unit will still be curtailed by 454MW.
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