UK
Greater Manchester Police have announced that they have launched an investigation into Angela Rayner MP, the deputy leader of the main opposition Labour Party. The investigation focuses on allegations made against Rayner that she may have broken electoral law by not properly disclosing her main residence in official documents. Sky News reports "Ms Rayner has faced scrutiny about whether she paid the right amount of tax on the 2015 sale of her council house because of confusion over whether it was her principal residence."
- In spite of the headline-grabbing nature of the story, the investigation is unlikely to have any significant impact on the UK's electoral outlook. Opinion polling shows the centre-left Labour Party remains on course to win a substantial majority in the next general election, expected to be called for some point in October or November.
- While the outcome of the investigation is uncertain, should it eventually upend the political career of Rayner it could lead to some shifts in the composition of the likely next gov't. Rayner is viewed as one of the seniormost figures on the 'soft left' of the party. Should she lose her position as deputy leader, shadow Deputy PM, or shadow Levelling Up Secretary it would leave all top positions within Sir Keir Starmer's shadow cabinet held by MPs on the right of the party.
Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 7-Poll Moving Average
Source: YouGov, Survation, Ipsos, Savanta, People Polling, More in Common, Techne, JL Partners, Redfield and Wilton, Opinium, We Think, Deltapoll, BMG, MNI
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