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THAILAND: Policy Coordination Needed For Growth, MoF Sees Similar Baht 2025 Avg

THAILAND
EM BulletBulletAPACEmerging Market NewsThailand

The Thailand authorities have kept the 2025 growth forecast at 3%. The Ministry of Finance did note that if the government accelerates spending that growth can be as high as 3.5%. This comes after the projection for 2024 was lowered to 2.5% for growth, from 2.7% prior. 

  • The Ministry also stated it would coordinate with other authorities, including the BoT, to achieve this growth outcome. No doubt this will include further pressure on the BoT to cut rates further. The MoF sees a benign inflation backdrop this year of 0.9%.
  • The USD/THB projected by the MoF to average 35.15 appears elevated relative to current spot levels (last 33.75/80), but note that we averaged 35.26 for the whole of 2024, so there is little shift from this standpoint.
  • Note tomorrow we get Dec trade, Industrial production and BoP figures. Next Wednesday Jan CPI is out, while on the 17th of Feb Q4 GDP from last year prints. The next BoT meeting is scheduled towards the end of Feb.
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The Thailand authorities have kept the 2025 growth forecast at 3%. The Ministry of Finance did note that if the government accelerates spending that growth can be as high as 3.5%. This comes after the projection for 2024 was lowered to 2.5% for growth, from 2.7% prior. 

  • The Ministry also stated it would coordinate with other authorities, including the BoT, to achieve this growth outcome. No doubt this will include further pressure on the BoT to cut rates further. The MoF sees a benign inflation backdrop this year of 0.9%.
  • The USD/THB projected by the MoF to average 35.15 appears elevated relative to current spot levels (last 33.75/80), but note that we averaged 35.26 for the whole of 2024, so there is little shift from this standpoint.
  • Note tomorrow we get Dec trade, Industrial production and BoP figures. Next Wednesday Jan CPI is out, while on the 17th of Feb Q4 GDP from last year prints. The next BoT meeting is scheduled towards the end of Feb.