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Policy Divergence Could Continue To Support CZK (vs. EUR)

CZECHIA
  • Finance Minister Zbynek Stanjura is expected to hold talks with leaders of parliamentary parties about an increase in public-sector wages approved by the previous government (BBG).
  • Economists expect the CNB to raise it benchmark rate by 75bps to 3.5% on Wednesday (Dec 22) to curb inflationary pressures.
  • Monetary policy divergence between CNB and ECB could continue to support the kurona in the medium term.
  • EURCZK has been testing its 25.20 support in the past few days; a break below that level would open the door for a move down to 25. On the topside, first resistance to watch stands at 25.36, followed by 25.43 (100DMA).
  • Czech 10Y yield has been retracing higher in the past few days and is currently testing its key resistance at 2.67%; next level to watch on the topside stands at 2.74% (Sep 2012 high). On the downside, support to watch stands at 2.53% (50DMA).
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