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Politics On Hiatus As Olympics Get Underway

FRANCE
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A messy and chaotic period in French politics comes to a (temporary) end on 26 July, with the opening ceremony for the Olympic Games in Paris. President Emmanuel Macron has said that no new gov't will be appointed during the course of the Games, which conclude with the closing ceremony on 11 August. For this period at least, PM Gabriel Attal and the Cabinet remain in place in a caretaker capacity, dealing with day-to-day issues (notably the arson attack that has crippled the Parisian high-speed rail network).

  • Once the Games are concluded, the three most likely scenarios to resolving the political impasse appear to be:
    • The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) decides on anew candidate, Macron accepts and there is a minority left gov't.
    • The centre-left (Socialist Party, The Ecologists) break off from the NFP, forming a gov't with the centrist Ensemble bloc supportive of Macron and potentially the centre-right Les Republicains.
    • Absolutely no agreement is possible, resulting in some form of technocratic gov't akin to that of former ECB President Mario Draghi who took over a neutral administration in Italy in 2021.
  • There is no set timeframe for when a new gov't must be appointed. However, the longer the current period of political limbo continues, the longer the period in which the gov't cannot materially alter policy.
  • Notably, earlier on 26 July the European Commission officially placed France, among six others, under the Excessive Deficit Procedure. Under the EDP, the EU now expects the gov'ts to supply medium-term plans on deficit reduction by mid-September. The Commission will then provide its evaluation of the plans in November.
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A messy and chaotic period in French politics comes to a (temporary) end on 26 July, with the opening ceremony for the Olympic Games in Paris. President Emmanuel Macron has said that no new gov't will be appointed during the course of the Games, which conclude with the closing ceremony on 11 August. For this period at least, PM Gabriel Attal and the Cabinet remain in place in a caretaker capacity, dealing with day-to-day issues (notably the arson attack that has crippled the Parisian high-speed rail network).

  • Once the Games are concluded, the three most likely scenarios to resolving the political impasse appear to be:
    • The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) decides on anew candidate, Macron accepts and there is a minority left gov't.
    • The centre-left (Socialist Party, The Ecologists) break off from the NFP, forming a gov't with the centrist Ensemble bloc supportive of Macron and potentially the centre-right Les Republicains.
    • Absolutely no agreement is possible, resulting in some form of technocratic gov't akin to that of former ECB President Mario Draghi who took over a neutral administration in Italy in 2021.
  • There is no set timeframe for when a new gov't must be appointed. However, the longer the current period of political limbo continues, the longer the period in which the gov't cannot materially alter policy.
  • Notably, earlier on 26 July the European Commission officially placed France, among six others, under the Excessive Deficit Procedure. Under the EDP, the EU now expects the gov'ts to supply medium-term plans on deficit reduction by mid-September. The Commission will then provide its evaluation of the plans in November.