POLITICS: The Times yesterday ran a piece........>

UK: POLITICS: The Times yesterday ran a piece saying that September 3 could be

the day of reckoning for the new PM. This is the first day parliament is due

back after recess. It is also the last practical date a vote of no confidence

could be held by those seeking to avoid a no deal Brexit.

- This would still allow 14-days for a new parliament to be formed (a

requirement under the fixed parliament act), the required timeframe for an

election to be held and still allow a new PM to be sworn in by October 24, one

week before the October 31 Brexit date.

- The main point to note from this is that Tory MPs will need to make a very

quick, almost snap decision on whether to back Boris (assuming he wins the

leadership contest).

- We think the market continues to underestimate the probability of no deal.

- Also note the split between Corbyn and McDonnell over the Labour Brexit

position continues, covered by the Guardian yesterday. This morning Peston

reports McDonnell saying "I don't want another summer [of internal battles] like

last year and year before]. I don't want another leadership election"