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Poll: Le Pen Closer To Macron In 2nd Round Than Pecresse

FRANCE

Latest second-round presidential election opinion polling from Ifop-Fiducial shows right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (RN) leader Marine Le Pen trailing incumbent President Emmanuel Macron by 44% to 56%. In a hypothetical contest between Macron and centre-right Les Republicains nominee Valerie Pecresse, Macron leads by 58% to 42%.

  • Given the French electoral phenomenon of the 'republican front' (moderate voters from the centre-left, centre, centre-right voting for the more moderate candidate to keep the far-right out of power), there had been a general assumption that centre-right Pecresse would offer more of a threat to Macron if she made it to the second round run-off than Le Pen.
  • However, a stuttering campaign and shift to the right in terms of rhetoric have seemingly damaged Pecresse's chances.
  • At this point of the electoral cycle in 2017 (when Macron faced Le Pen in the run-off), Macron's lead in hypothetical second round matchups against Le Pen stood at around 60%:40%.
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