May 18, 2022 14:26 GMT
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Latest polling ahead of the 12 and 19 June parliamentary election shows President Emmanuel Macron's centrist 'Ensemble' alliance on course to retain its majority, despite a strong challenge from the leftist NUPES alliance.
- Harris Interactive first-round poll: NUPES: 29% (+1), Ensemble!: 26%, RN: 23% (-1), LR/UDI: 10% (+1), Reconquête: 5% (-1), LO/NPA: 3%. +/- vs. 6-9 May 2022. Fieldwork: 13-16 May 2022. Sample size: 2,103
- Harris Interactive poll: Parliamentary elections (seat projection range): Ensemble!: 300-350 (-), NUPES: 108-172 (+4), RN: 48-75 (-4), LR/UDI: 35-55 (+6), Reconquête: 0-2 (=). +/- vs. 6-9 May 2022. Fieldwork: 13-16 May 2022. Sample size: 2,103
- A total of 289 seats are required to command a majority in the National Assembly, meaning that based on this polling even if Macron's alliance's seat total sits at the bottom of their projection range, it would still hold a majority.
- As with the presidential election, the choice of voters whose candidates are eliminated in the first round are likely to decide the outcome of the election. While most centre-right Les Republicains/Union of Democrats and Independents (LR/UDI) supporters are likely to shift their support to Macron's group in second-round run offs against leftist New People's Ecologic and Social Union (NUPES) candidates, the same cannot be said for right-wing Rassemblement National (RN) first round voters.
- RN voters have in previous elections displayed a strong antipathy towards Macron. While NUPES candidates sit on the other side of the political spectrum to Marine Le Pen's RN, a significant number of RN voters could shift to the left in order to deny Macron's bloc a parliamentary majority.