Poll-Macron Bloc Falls Behind Leftists In 1st Round, But Holds Majority

Latest polling ahead of the 12 and 19 June parliamentary election shows President Emmanuel Macron's centrist 'Ensemble' alliance on course to retain its majority, despite a strong challenge from the leftist NUPES alliance.

• Harris Interactive first-round poll: NUPES: 29% (+1), Ensemble!: 26%, RN: 23% (-1), LR/UDI: 10% (+1), Reconquête: 5% (-1), LO/NPA: 3%. +/- vs. 6-9 May 2022. Fieldwork: 13-16 May 2022. Sample size: 2,103
• Harris Interactive poll: Parliamentary elections (seat projection range): Ensemble!: 300-350 (-), NUPES: 108-172 (+4), RN: 48-75 (-4), LR/UDI: 35-55 (+6), Reconquête: 0-2 (=). +/- vs. 6-9 May 2022. Fieldwork: 13-16 May 2022. Sample size: 2,103
• A total of 289 seats are required to command a majority in the National Assembly, meaning that based on this polling even if Macron's alliance's seat total sits at the bottom of their projection range, it would still hold a majority.
• As with the presidential election, the choice of voters whose candidates are eliminated in the first round are likely to decide the outcome of the election. While most centre-right Les Republicains/Union of Democrats and Independents (LR/UDI) supporters are likely to shift their support to Macron's group in second-round run offs against leftist New People's Ecologic and Social Union (NUPES) candidates, the same cannot be said for right-wing Rassemblement National (RN) first round voters.
• RN voters have in previous elections displayed a strong antipathy towards Macron. While NUPES candidates sit on the other side of the political spectrum to Marine Le Pen's RN, a significant number of RN voters could shift to the left in order to deny Macron's bloc a parliamentary majority.