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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
A Reuters/Ipsos poll published at the top of the hour shows respondents broadly opposed to both incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump running for the presidency in 2024. Among the 1,005 respondents polled from 22-24 April, of those who identified as Democrats 44% were opposed to Biden seeking a second term while 34% of self-identified Republicans felt the same way about Trump.
- The article states that the poll shows an "American public unenthused by the prospect of a rematch between Biden and his predecessor and current leading Republican rival, Donald Trump, with about two-thirds of respondents overall not wanting either to run again in 2024.."
- The poll has Biden leading Trump by 43% to 38% among registered voters, outside the 4% margin of error.
- Betting markets show Biden as the overwhelming favourite to win the Democratic presidential nomination. Since the announcement the implied probability of Biden being the Democratic nominee in 2024 has risen to an all-time-high of 84.0% according to data from betting exchange Smarkets. This is up from a recent low of 26.3% on 8 November, the day of the US midterms before the results had come in showing a better-than-expected outcome for the Democrats.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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