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Polling Points Towards Tight Maryland Senate Race

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An internal Republican party poll has found that Former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan is leading both of his likely Democrat Senate opponents by double digits. Hogan's surprise entry into the race earlier this month promoted some cautious optimism amongst Republicans that he could provide the first opportunity for a GOP win in the deep-blue state for decades.

  • Ragnar Research Partners, a polling firm associated with Hogan, reports: “The Generic Ballot favors Democrats by 23-points and Larry Hogan is outperforming a generic Republican by 18-points in the head-to-head ballot with Trone. In a hypothetical contest between Larry Hogan and Angela Alsobrooks, Hogan once again outperforms a generic Republican candidate by 21-points.”
  • Punchbowl News notes: “We don’t really believe Hogan is leading by that wide of a margin over Trone and Alsobrooks in Maryland. Yes, Hogan is a largely popular former two-term governor. But remember – 2024 is a presidential year and former President Donald Trump is back on the ballot. President Joe Biden beat Trump by 33 points in Maryland.”
  • However, the survey suggests that a previously non-competitive Maryland race could divert valuable funds from Democrat HQ which would preferably be used in to defend vulnerable incumbents in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin, and attack the open seat in Michigan.

Figure 1: Maryland Senate Race

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An internal Republican party poll has found that Former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan is leading both of his likely Democrat Senate opponents by double digits. Hogan's surprise entry into the race earlier this month promoted some cautious optimism amongst Republicans that he could provide the first opportunity for a GOP win in the deep-blue state for decades.

  • Ragnar Research Partners, a polling firm associated with Hogan, reports: “The Generic Ballot favors Democrats by 23-points and Larry Hogan is outperforming a generic Republican by 18-points in the head-to-head ballot with Trone. In a hypothetical contest between Larry Hogan and Angela Alsobrooks, Hogan once again outperforms a generic Republican candidate by 21-points.”
  • Punchbowl News notes: “We don’t really believe Hogan is leading by that wide of a margin over Trone and Alsobrooks in Maryland. Yes, Hogan is a largely popular former two-term governor. But remember – 2024 is a presidential year and former President Donald Trump is back on the ballot. President Joe Biden beat Trump by 33 points in Maryland.”
  • However, the survey suggests that a previously non-competitive Maryland race could divert valuable funds from Democrat HQ which would preferably be used in to defend vulnerable incumbents in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin, and attack the open seat in Michigan.

Figure 1: Maryland Senate Race

Keep reading...Show less