Polling Shows PiS Retaining Lead, But Vulnerable To Opposition Alliance

Latest opinion polling from Poland shows the governing right-wing Law and Justice Party (PiS) and its United Right coalition allies remain the single most popular grouping, but could be vulnerable to an alliance of opposition parties come the next legislative election. The next vote is not due until November 2023 at the latest, but PM Mateusz Morawiecki's administration governs as a minority, propped up by smaller parties in a confidence and supply agreement. Therefore, it could prove vulnerable to collapse.

• Social Changes poll: United Right: 37% (-1), Civic Coalition: 31% (+4), Confederation: 8% (-1), The Left: 8%, Poland2050: 7% (-3), Polish People's Party: 5% (+2), Kukiz'15: 2%, Agreement: 1%, +/- vs. 31 Jul - 1 Aug 2022, Fieldwork: 5-8 August 2022, Sample size: 1,066
• While the centre-right liberal Civic Coalition sits several percentage points behind the United Right, there is the prospect that could run alongside the centrist Poland2050, and even the social democratic Left in order to oust the Morawiecki gov't. Should these opposition groups join forces it would likely prove sufficient to at least deny PiS a majority and potentially result in a majority coalition for a Civic Coalition-Poland2050-Left coalition as well.