Polling Support For Conservatives Falls After PM Breaks COVID-19 Rules

Prime Minister Erna Solberg's governing centre-right Conservatives have seen their opinion polling support decline ahead of this September's general election following revelations that Solberg broke COVID-19 rules to attend her 60th birthday party with her family.

• Ipsos poll: Labour: 24% (+4), Conservative: 21% (-2), Centre Party: 17% (-1), Progress Party: 12% (-1), Socialist Left Party: 7% (-1), Red Party: 5% (+2), Liberals: 3% (-2), Greens: 3% (-1), Christian Democrats: 3%. +/- vs. 22-24 February 2021. Fieldwork: 22-24 March 2021. Sample size: 1,000.
• At present, the left-leaning 'red bloc' of parties (Labour, Centre, Socialist Left) would be best placed to lead the next government, polling at a combined 48%.
• The 'blue bloc' of centre-right and right wing parties (Conservative, Progress, Liberals, Christian Democrats) fall much shorter, with a combined 39%.
• Depending on the parliamentary arithmetic, there is the prospect that that far-left communist Red Party could be required to prop up a left-leaning bloc. The inclusion of the Reds in any coalition or confidence-and-supply agreement would be a watershed moment in Norwegian politics (and likely a last resort for the moderate centre-left Labour Party).
• A more likely scenario may be the environmentalist Greens acting as kingmakers. However, the party has steadfastly refused to back either red or blue blocs in the past, and may require more concessions (in already relatively environmentally-friendly Norway) to support either side.