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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
ITALY
Exactly one month out from the 25 September parliamentary election, opinion polling continues to show the centre-right coalition of parties on course to win an overall majority in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, in what would represent a sea-change in the Italian political landscape.
- The centre-right coalition (CDX) - the right-wing nationalist Brothers of Italy (FdI), right-wing populist League (Lega), centre-right Forza Italia (FI) and liberal conservative Us Moderates (NM) - is polling around a combined 45-50% of the vote. This compares to 26-32% for the combined parties of the centre-left coalition (CSX) - centre-left Democratic Party (PD), centrist Civic Commitment (IC), pro-EU liberal More Europe (+E), and the eco-socialist Greens and Left Alliance (AVS).
- A poll from BiDiMedia carried out 17-18 August projects that among the 221 single-member first-past-the-post constituencies in both the Chamber and Senate, 162 are seen as 'solid' for the CDX, with the CSX having a 'solid' hold of just nine seats, while only 13 lean towards the centre-left (see graphic below).
Graphic 1. Projection of FPTP Seats Based Opinion Poll, Chamber of Deputies (Left), Senate (Right)
Source: Sondaggi BiDiMedia. Fieldwork 17-18 Aug, 2,107 respondents.
- In a debate on 23 August, FdI leader Giorgia Meloni - currently frontrunner to take over from Mario Draghi as PM - sparred with PD leader Enrico Letta on the issue of introducing a national price cap on energy bills. Instead, Meloni, as well as League leader Matteo Salvini, have expressed support for Draghi's proposed EU-wide cap on Russian energy prices.
Chart 1. Italy General Election Opinion Polling by Coalition, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: Demopolis, Lab2101, Noto, Termometro Politico, Tecne, BiDiMedia, GDC, Enzo Risso, EMG, Quorom-YouTrend, Demos&Pi, SWG, Ipsos, Piepoli, EMG, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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