Polls Continue To Show Muddled Picture As Path To Reopening Decreed

Opinion polls in Italy continue to show the four largest parties all with a similar level of support amidst a gov't decree setting out a path to reopening the economy and society.

• The right-wing populist League (Lega) of former Deputy PM Matteo Salvini continues to lead, as it has done for several years, but a sustained gradual decline in the party's support has not been arrested by its joining the coalition gov't of PM Mario Draghi.
• The main beneficiary of the League's decline is the right-wing nationalist Brothers of Italy (FdI). The FdI is the only major Italian party that is not part of the governing coalition, and as such has become receptacle for opponents of the current administration.
• The next election is not due until 2023 and despite Italy's frequent political crises, parliament has managed to avoid snap elections so far.
• The next big challenge to political stability may be the end to the COVID-19 pandemic. Draghi came in as an unelected PM to steer Italy through a political crisis and the pandemic. It may be the case that once the pandemic passes, the broad support he has enjoyed so far begins to ebb as politicians demand accountability and an elected PM.

Chart 1. Italy Opinion Polling, % and Trendline

Source: Index, SWG, Tecne, Termometro Politico, Piepoli, EMG, Noto, BiDiMedia, Euromedia, Ipsos, Winpoll, Format Research, Demos & Pi, Ixe, Quorum-YouTrend, Lab2101, MNI

• This could come within the next 12 months, with the gov't issuing a decree on 21 April setting out the path towards the reopening of the economy and ending of COVID-19 restrictions. The unwinding begins on 26 April , with cinemas, theatres, concert halls and other similar venues allowed to open in yellow zones. The next steps are due to come in on 15 May, 1 June, 15 June, and 1 July.