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Polls: Macron, Le Pen Set For Run-Off With Under A Week Until Election

FRANCE

The latest batch of rolling opinion polls show, as has been the case for some weeks, that incumbent President Emmanuel Macron and right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National leader Marine Le Pen are on course to go through to the second round run-off following the first round taking place on Sunday 10 April.

  • OpinionWay/Kea: Macron: 28% (=), Le Pen: 22% (+2), Melenchon: 14% (-1), Zemmour: 9% (-1), Pecresse: 9% (=). Fieldwork: 1-4 Apr, chgs w/29 Mar-1 Apr. 1,666 respondents.
  • Ipsos-Sopra Steria: Macron: 26.5% (+0.5), Le Pen: 21% (=), Melenchon: 16% (+0.5), Zemmour: 10.5% (-0.5), Pecresse: 8.5% (-1). Fieldwork: 1-4 Apr, chgs w/30 Mar-2 Apr. 1,963 respondents:
  • Ifop-Fiducial: Macron: 27.5% (-0.5), Le Pen: 22% (+0.5), Melenchon: 15.5% (+0.5), Zemmour: 10% (-1), Pecresse: 10% (+0.5). Fieldwork: 1-4 Apr, chgs w/29 Mar-1 Apr. 3,008 respondents:
  • The most likely chance of an upset in the first round at present comes if the left can boost their turnout significantly at the same time that far-right polemicist Eric Zemmour splits away more support from Le Pen than expected, allowing Jean-Luc Melenchon (who placed third in the 2017 first round) to come through unexpectedly in second place.
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