Polls-Macron's Group On Edge Of Majority Ahead Of Legislative Election

Opinion polling from France ahead of the first round of the legislative election taking place on Sunday 12 June shows President Emmanuel Macron's centrist 'Ensemble' bloc on the cusp of retaining its majority in the National Assembly.

• Over the course of the past six weeks, the mean average seat projection for Macron's Ensemble alliance has declined steadily, to the point where the seat projection range in the latest Ifop-Fiducial poll from 6 June has the alliance between 250 and 290 seats, with the highest end of this range only a seat above the 289 required for an overall majority.
• While not necessarily representative of mainland France, overseas voting in the 11 parliamentary constituencies reserved for overseas French residents shows that many second-round contests on 19 June could come down to Ensemble versus the leftist NUPES alliance. Nine of the 11 overseas constituency second rounds will have this contest.
• The loss of a majority would undoubtedly serve as a blow to Macron's prestige and his gov'ts ability to enact legislation. However, it will still likely form the gov't given the lack of potential allies for NUPES, with most other seats in the National Assembly likely to go to to the centre-right Les Republicains or far-right Rassembelement National.
• As such, members from the miscellaneous centre-left, miscellaneous centre-right (both recognised separate blocs) or independents could lend their support to Macron's group to ensure passage of legislation. However, it is likely to result in compromises being made on behalf of the gov't, which could impact the speed of legislative processes.

Source: Ifop-Fiducial, Harris Interactive, Elabe, OpinionWay/Kea, Ipsos-Sopra Steria, MNI. Dotted line indicates 289 seats required for majority.