Polls Point To Close Election Race

Latest opinion polling ahead of the Slovenian legislative election taking place on 24 April shows a close race between the right-wing populist Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) of PM Janesz Jansa and the liberal, green Freedom Movement (GS) led by businessman Robert Golob.

• Parsifal poll: SDS: 28% (-3), GS: 23% (-3), Social Democrats (SD): 11% (+1), New Slovenia (NSi): 6% (+2), The Left (L): 5% (+1), Let's Connect Slovenia (PoS): 5% (-2), Our Country (ND): 4% (+2), Party of Alenka Bratusek (SAB): 4% (+2), Marjan Sarec List (LMŠ): 3% (-1). +/- vs. 14-17 March 2022. Fieldwork: 1-5 April 2022. Sample size: 881
• Jansa's SDS currently govern in coalition with New Slovenia and one of the constituent parties of the Let's Connect Slovenia Alliance, with the support of the nationalist Slovenian National Party.
• The outcome of the race is likely to come down to how many parties cross the 4% electoral threshold to win representation, as well as which groups are willing to seek to work together.
• Jansa's controverisal leadership (criticised by opponents of mirroring that of populist Hungarian leader Viktor Orban in picking fights with the EU and cracking down on media freedoms) has polarised voters and parties. As such, Golob's environmentalist party, which has soared in polls having only been founded in May 2021, could find itself with more willing coalition partners in the post-election landscape.