Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Australia's most populous state, New South Wales, goes to the polls tomorrow (25 March) to elect all 93 members of its Legislative Assembly and 21 of the 42 seats in the Legislative Council. The state has been governed for 12 years by premiers from the centre-right Liberal/National Coalition, but polls point to this contest coming down to the wire. The main opposition centre-left Australian Labor Party (ALP) has held a lead within the margin of error over the Coalition in primary vote polling for nearly a year, and holds a more substantial advantage in two-party preferred vote polling.
- As was the case in the 2022 federal election that saw Labor's Anthony Albanese sweep to power, the presence of independent 'teal' candidates opposed to the Coalition could severely damage its chances of retaining power. The teals run on an environmentally friendly but largely cenrist/centre-right policy platforms specific to their electoral district and were able to remove Liberal members in some previously rock-solid seats.
- The election comes with notable risks for the ALP. State party head Chris Minns's electoral district of Kogarah is the most marginal Labor seat in NSW, and he faces an insurgent campaign from independent candidate Troy Stolz - a whistleblower on gambling companies in NSW, who is suffering from terminal cancer. Should Labor secure a majority but Minns lose his seat it could lead to a scrap for the premier's position.
- A win for the ALP would further solidify the party's hold on Australian politics, leaving just Tasmania as the only state or territory with a Coalition government in place.
Chart 1. Primary Vote Opinion Polling, % and 5-Poll Moving Average
Source: Resolve Strategic, Essential, Newspoll, Roy Morgan, YouGov, Freshwater Strategy, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.