Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Opinion polling in the run-up to election day on 14 October shows that the centre-right Nationals may need the support of the populist New Zealand First (NZF) as well as the right-libertarian ACT in order to form a majority coalition. Given that PM Chris Hipkins has ruled out a coalition between his centre-left Labour party and NZF, barring a shock result or a reversal of this stance, the only way to a majority coalition appears to involve the Nationals, ACT and potentially NZF.
- Luxon's campaign pledge to remove the RBNZ's dual mandate of ensuring stable prices and maximum stable employment in favour of just the former has garnered market interest, as have plans for NZD14bn in tax cuts that critics argue are not fully costed. NZF head Winston Peters hascalled for proof of the Nationals plans being costed before declaring support. As such, an inclusion of NZF in gov't could limit the scope of the cuts supported by the Nationals and ACT.
Chart 1. New Zealand General Election Opinion Polling, Seat Projections (Dashed line indicates majority threshold)
Source: Talbot Mills, TPU-Curia, Guardian-Essential, 1 News-Verian, Newshub-Reid Research, Roy Morgan, Freshwater Strategy, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.