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Polls Show Pellegrini & Korčok Likely To Face Each Other In Run-Off

SLOVAKIA

Opinion polling ahead of the Slovakian presidential election taking place on 23 March shows that Parliament Speaker Peter Pellegrini and former Foreign Minister Ivan Korčok will need a second round run-off election on 6 April to decide a winner, with neither likely to secure the 50%+1 of the vote required to win outright. While the Slovakian presidency is a largely ceremonial position, the office holder has a national platform to speak on the political issues of the day.

  • Outgoing President Zuzana Čaputová has used her final months in office to criticise the policies of PM Robert Fico and his left-wing populist gov't for its percieved euroscepticism and friendliness to Russia.
  • Pellegrini, hailing from the centre-left Hlas-SD, would likely prove much more amenable to the Fico policy agenda were he to win office. Korčok on the other hand has the backing of the opposition pro-EU Progressive Slovakia and as such would be a voice of criticism for the Fico gov't should he win the Grassalkovich Palace.
  • Former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Štefan Harabin, with the endorsement of the right-wing nationalist Slovak National and Republic parties, looks set to come third with around 10% of the vote. Whether his supporters change their allegiance to either of the main candidates in the second round could prove decisive.
  • Pellegrini and Korčok have clashed over Ukraine, with Pellegrini repeating the Fico gov'ts calls for a peace settlement, while Korčok backs allying with Poland and Czechia in providing military support to Kyiv.
Chart 1. Presidetial Election Opinion Polling, % & 3-Poll Moving Average

Source: Ipsos, Median, Focus, Sanep, NMS, AKO, MNI

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Opinion polling ahead of the Slovakian presidential election taking place on 23 March shows that Parliament Speaker Peter Pellegrini and former Foreign Minister Ivan Korčok will need a second round run-off election on 6 April to decide a winner, with neither likely to secure the 50%+1 of the vote required to win outright. While the Slovakian presidency is a largely ceremonial position, the office holder has a national platform to speak on the political issues of the day.

  • Outgoing President Zuzana Čaputová has used her final months in office to criticise the policies of PM Robert Fico and his left-wing populist gov't for its percieved euroscepticism and friendliness to Russia.
  • Pellegrini, hailing from the centre-left Hlas-SD, would likely prove much more amenable to the Fico policy agenda were he to win office. Korčok on the other hand has the backing of the opposition pro-EU Progressive Slovakia and as such would be a voice of criticism for the Fico gov't should he win the Grassalkovich Palace.
  • Former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Štefan Harabin, with the endorsement of the right-wing nationalist Slovak National and Republic parties, looks set to come third with around 10% of the vote. Whether his supporters change their allegiance to either of the main candidates in the second round could prove decisive.
  • Pellegrini and Korčok have clashed over Ukraine, with Pellegrini repeating the Fico gov'ts calls for a peace settlement, while Korčok backs allying with Poland and Czechia in providing military support to Kyiv.
Chart 1. Presidetial Election Opinion Polling, % & 3-Poll Moving Average

Source: Ipsos, Median, Focus, Sanep, NMS, AKO, MNI