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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
SLOVAKIA
With the polls tightening, focus will turn to the potential coalition allies of the parties set to emerge with the largest seat totals (Smer-SD and PS). The kingmakers could prove to be the centre-left Hlas-SD of former PM Peter Pellegrini. He led Slovakia as a member of Smer-SD, but founded his own party amid Smer-SD's populist shift. Economically Hlas-SD is closer to Smer-SD, but Fico's stance on blocking aid to Ukraine and engaging in jousts with Brussels could see Pellegrini side with PS post-election.
- Liberal and centre-right parties/alliances would be more likely to side with PS. These consist of the liberal/libertarian Freedom and Solidarity (SASKA), the conservative OL'aNO-KU-ZL alliance, and the centre-right Christian Democratic Movement (KDH).
- Those more likely to side with Smer-SD are the extreme far-right Republic, the nationalist Slovak National Party (SNS), and the national-conservative Sme Rodina (We Are Family).
- An average of seat projections from opinion polls over the final week of the campaign shows neither the PS-leaning nor the Smer-SD-leaning blocs winning a majority without Hlas-SD's support. Pellegrini has stated that he will not work with Republic, potentially opening the door to Fico leading a coalition of more centrist parties, which could see a moderation of his policy positions.
Chart 2. Average Seat Projections Based on Opinion Polls from Final Week of Campaign
Source: NMS, Ipsos, AKO, Median, SANEP, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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