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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
Vice President Kamala Harris retains her slight edge in the New York Times national polling average, but public opinion firms are divided on which candidate is benefited by the underlying political environment.
- Ipsos reports that the fundamentals still favour Trump: “Americans continue to report the main issues facing the country are economic in nature. A plurality of Americans consistently identify inflation as the most pressing problem facing the nation, with concerns about immigration, democracy, and other issues taking a backseat. On this front, Trump maintains a perceived advantage over Harris, with voters expressing greater confidence in his economic policies.”
- Roll Call reports that the race is a toss-up, but Harris has the edge: “…all things being equal, Harris has a slight advantage over Trump. She is likely to be preferred among the so-called double haters, those who disliked both Trump and Biden, and undecided voters are more likely to be attracted to the Democrats’ optimism than the Republicans’ darkness. Those key voters are also more likely to find Harris and Walz more personally appealing than Trump and his running-mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance.”
- Note: Harris is expected to require a 2-3% win in the popular vote to win the election due to Trump’s strength in swing states.
Figure 1: National Polling Average
Source: New York Times
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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