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Positioning Trend & Technicals Signal Further Strength, AUDNZD in Focus (1/2)

AUD
  • AUD net positioning continued to rise in the latest CFTC report, reducing the AUD net short to 8% of open interest, the smallest net short in a year. This supports the view that the most recent AUD rally has largely been driven by short-covering and could have more room to expand. AUD’s positioning Z-score is now the highest of all currencies surveyed, clearly indicating the positive momentum in play.
  • Indeed, AUDUSD bullish conditions remain intact following the break of key short-term resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high. This highlights a significant range breakout and confirms a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 19. A continuation higher would open 0.6771 next, the Jan 3 high and 0.6839, the Jan 02 high.
  • Given the proximity to tomorrow’s RBNZ meeting, AUDNZD will be in focus, a cross that has garnered more attention in recent sessions as we rise back above 1.10 once again. We note the move has been assisted by rate differentials, with the AU-NZ 2yr swap spread now 46bps above the May lows at -48bps. This represents the highest levels since August 2022.

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