Positive Signs In Westpac's Card Spending Data

Westpac's latest data "continues to show a lift in card transactions activity
in July, despite a notable underperformance in Victoria. After falling to
lows around 80 in April, the Westpac Card Tracker Index recovered
materially to reads in the 95-100 range in May and June, lifting further to
an average read of 103 in July. This means annual growth in the total
value of card transactions is running slightly above its pre-COVID pace.
Victoria is seeing persistently weaker card activity than other states. That
said the return to lockdown has not led to more pronounced weakness so
far, the impact cushioned by significant expenditure switching... Both
'discretionary' and 'essential' spending flows are lifting although the
biggest improvement since April has been around 'discretionary' activity.
This component also explains most of the divergence between states.
Card transaction flows suggest retail sales will post another strong gain
for the month of July. Allowing for seasonality, the data is broadly
consistent with a 3-5% gain in monthly retail sales."