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Post-ADP Data React

US TSY FUTURES
  • Tsy futures paring losses after lower than expected ADP Employment Change (+103k vs. +130k est, 113k prior). Comes after Tuesday's lower than expected JOLTS Job Openings (8.733M vs. 9.3M est, 9.350M prior down-revised from 9.553M) - the biggest monthly drop since May 2023.
  • Focus turns to Friday's headline employment data for November.
  • Mar'24 10Y futures currently trading 110-27.5 last, -2 vs. 110-20.5 low. Initial resistance nearby at 110-31.5, Dec 5 high, followed by 111-00 Round number resistance. Support well below at 109-11 20-day EMA.
  • Curves mixed/off lows (3M10Y -2.129 at -123.255; 2Y10Y +.108 at -41.286).
  • Next up at 0830ET: Nonfarm Productivity (4.7% prior, 4.9% est), Unit Labor Costs (-0.8% prior, -0.9% est) and Trade Balance (-$61.5B prior, -$64.2B est). US Tsy $56B 17W Bill auction at 1130ET
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