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Post-CPI Analyst Takes: Morgan Stanley Sees Dec FOMC As "Live" (2/2)

FED
  • JPMorgan writes that “overall it appears that the broad inflation trends are continuing to moderate, but they likely need to keep cooling over time for the Fed to feel more comfortable that inflation will get to and remain close to target. While we continue to see the Fed on hold, we think this latest CPI report reinforces the idea that the FOMC will continue to communicate a tightening bias.”
  • Morgan Stanley sees the December meeting remaining live: “Along with the strong September payroll print, meets the bar we previously set for an additional hike in November - with the important exception of easing financial conditions, which remain more than one 25bp hike tighter since the September FOMC meeting. The Fed voices that have argued for no further hike this year will maintain that view as long as financial conditions remain tighter. But the recent set of data make the next round even more important in the December hike determination for policymakers. December remains a live meeting.”
  • TD thinks September's CPI “should not make a meaningful difference for the Fed ahead of the November FOMC meeting. Fed officials are viewing the recent run up in yields as doing part of the tightening job that a majority of the Committee intended with an additional rate increase, at least in the near term. We expect the Fed to remain patient as they continue to evaluate the totality of the data.”

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