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Post-CPI Analyst Wrap: No Further Hikes [2/3]

CANADA
  • National: The core measures favored by the BoC (Trim and Median) both increased by 0.3 in Nov. This is still high and a somewhat uncomfortable level, but it represents a marked improvement from earlier this year. The data don’t change our view that the BoC needs to take a pause following the extremely aggressive tightening orchestrated in 2022. We would have welcomed a greater deceleration in headline, but early indicators tell us that is imminent.
  • RBC: The decision of further tapering or a pause in Jan will be contingent on the next inflation reading and results from the bank’s quarterly surveys (to be released about a week before the meeting date). RBC still expect the Bank to pause at 4.25%, and for that to be held throughout 2023.
  • TD: Inflation is likely to undershoot the BoC's Q4/Q4 forecast of 7.1% y/y, but the Bank will still find cause for concern in today's data. Most notably, core CPI metrics firmed slightly with the weighted median measure rising from 4.9% to 5.0% y/y, which points to persistent underlying inflationary pressures. The data should ever so slightly ratchet up the pressure on the BoC. We continue to look for the BoC to stay on hold in January, but that call is increasingly contingent on a near-term slowdown in economic activity.
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