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Post-Data Update

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures continue to extend lows following this morning flood of data, Sep'24 10Y taps 112-27.5 low (-29), yield at 3.9321 (+.0970). Curves ratchet flatter (2s10s -4.211 at -16.898) with the short end underperforming as rate cut pricing continues to cool.
  • Current projected rate cuts recede vs. earlier pre-data levels (*) post-CPI: Sep'24 cumulative -31.2bp (-35.2bp), Nov'24 cumulative -62.0bp (-69.6bp), Dec'24 -94.9bp (-104.1bp).
  • Stocks like the rise in retail sales and dip in weekly claims, SPX Eminis +52.0 at 5529.0 at the moment.

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