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Free AccessPost-Fed Musings In Play, Strong Aussie Data Signals Keep Lid On ACGBs
Post-FOMC impetus carried over into Asia, lending support to JGBs and ACGBs as local markets re-opened, as T-Notes started correcting their relief rally, which gradually spilled over elsewhere. The initial impetus petered out as the session progressed, with core FI markets staging more or less coordinated recovery, even as ACGBs struggled to shake off data-induced weakness.
- T-Notes pulled back from post-Fed highs (115-30+) but the dip was supported at 115-05 and the contract trimmed losses. TYU2 sits +0-14+ at 115-19+ as we type, amid continued assessment of Fed policy outlook. Eurodollar futures run -1.5 to +5.5 ticks through the reds. Cash Tsy curve bear flattened, although yields now sit off highs & flats, last +1.0-6.7bp. The 5-/30-Year sector re-inverted after a brief foray into positive territory on Wednesday, while the 2-/10-Year bit of the curve trimmed yesterday's gains without testing zero. U.S. data docket for today includes housing starts, building permits, Philadelphia Fed Biz. Outlook & weekly jobless claims.
- JGB futures struggled to punch through overnight highs (147.34) and eased off ahead of the Tokyo lunch break before finding poise again. This leaves JBU2 at 146.97, 139 ticks above Wednesday's settlement and near re-opening levels. Cash JGB yields have faltered across the curve amid continued bond-buying by the BoJ. As a reminder, Japan's central bank will conclude its monetary policy meeting on Friday.
- Domestic data fuelled hawkish RBA bets, amplifying Fed-inspired pressure to ACGBs. The labour market remained tight, with above-forecast employment growth driven exclusively by full-time positions and coupled with an uptick in participation; consumer inflation expectations continued to soar. Futures extended losses to fresh session lows as the data hit the wires, before finding poise and trimming losses in sync with T-Notes. YM last +16.3 & XM +10.5, with bills running 3-12 ticks higher through the reds. Cash ACGB curve remains steeper, with yields last 7.0-13.5bp
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.