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Post-LIBOR Settle Update, New 3M High, Lead Qrtly Bounces?

US EURODLR FUTURES

Already trading broadly lower, lead quarterly EDH2 pares losses slightly to 99.2375 (-0.0425) vs. 99.2025 low, after latest 3M LIBOR settlement climbs another +0.02700 to 0.61014%, up 0.08714 on the week to level not seen since late April 2020.

  • Lead quarterly makes new low for the year at 99.2025 (-0.0775) earlier, edging past prior low of 99.205 from Feb 10 as 50bp liftoff pricing gains momentum -- 25bp hike on March 16 a foregone conclusion after Fed Chairman Powell sees as appropriate (Thu's Senate testimony).
  • Fed Chair Powell conceded it's still "TOO EARLY TO SAY IF RUSSIA CHANGES FED RATES PATH" Bbg, statement could be viewed with a hawkish light if he is thinking in terms of pre-invasion pricing. Cleveland Fed Mester concurs that Russia's war in Ukraine adds unwanted uncertainty, but it's "`CRITICALLY IMPORTANT' FED GETS INFLATION UNDER CONTROL" she said on CNBC Thursday Morning.
  • Eurodollar options saw surge of rate hike insurance buying mainly in Dec'22 and first quarter 1Y midcurves.
  • Back to Russia-tied risk -- FI markets trading higher/risk-off buying after Russia started shelling Europe's largest nuclear reactor based in Ukraine, squelching positive tone over third round peace talks and cease fire "corridors".
  • Reds-Golds (EDH3-EDZ6) trading 0.040-0.085 higher; 30YY slipped to 2.1101% low overnight currently 2.1716% -.0476.

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