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Post-LIBOR Settle Update: Powell Pivot

US EURODLR FUTURES

Lead quarterly EDU2 trades +0.010 at 96.675 after latest 3M LIBOR set' falls -0.02357 to 2.78229% (+0.01600/wk).

  • The 3M benchmark falls off Wed's highest level since Dec 31, 2018 (in turn - near highest level since late 2008) after the FOMC delivered a second consecutive 75bp hike while scaling back hawkish forward guidance for Sep.
  • Short end rates bounced after Chairman Powell pivot: "as the stance of monetary policy tightens further, it'll become appropriate to slow the pace of increases while we assess how cumulative policy adjustments are affecting the economy and inflation."
  • Pricing of third 75bp hike in Sep have eased in favor of 50bp as balance of Whites (EDZ2-EDM3) trades -0.005-0.020, Reds through Greens (EDU3-EDM5) -0.030-0.050, Blues through Golds (EDU5-EDM7 -0.050-0.080 with Golds underperforming.
  • Front end inversion recedes slightly: Dec'22/Mar'23 at -0.160. Most inverted calendar spds: EDZ2/EDZ3 at -0.630 vs. -0.705 early Wed, EDH3/EDH4 at -0.600 vs. -0.655. Inversion starts to flatten out in Green Jun'25 vs. Blue Sep trading flat to +0.005.
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Lead quarterly EDU2 trades +0.010 at 96.675 after latest 3M LIBOR set' falls -0.02357 to 2.78229% (+0.01600/wk).

  • The 3M benchmark falls off Wed's highest level since Dec 31, 2018 (in turn - near highest level since late 2008) after the FOMC delivered a second consecutive 75bp hike while scaling back hawkish forward guidance for Sep.
  • Short end rates bounced after Chairman Powell pivot: "as the stance of monetary policy tightens further, it'll become appropriate to slow the pace of increases while we assess how cumulative policy adjustments are affecting the economy and inflation."
  • Pricing of third 75bp hike in Sep have eased in favor of 50bp as balance of Whites (EDZ2-EDM3) trades -0.005-0.020, Reds through Greens (EDU3-EDM5) -0.030-0.050, Blues through Golds (EDU5-EDM7 -0.050-0.080 with Golds underperforming.
  • Front end inversion recedes slightly: Dec'22/Mar'23 at -0.160. Most inverted calendar spds: EDZ2/EDZ3 at -0.630 vs. -0.705 early Wed, EDH3/EDH4 at -0.600 vs. -0.655. Inversion starts to flatten out in Green Jun'25 vs. Blue Sep trading flat to +0.005.