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Post-US CPI Low For 2024 Cuts

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed from pre-Thanksgiving levels for the next two meetings, with 3.5bp of cumulative tightening with January.
  • They’ve drifted higher further into 2024 though, biased by yesterday’s EU price action, moving further away from a first cut in May (cumulative 14bp) which is still seen in June (27bp).
  • With the Dec'24 implied rate rising 4bps since Wednesday's close, the cumulative 85bp of cuts from current levels to end-2024 is the lowest since US CPI on Nov 14, vs 75bps at the Nov 13 close and having touched 100bps after the release.

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