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EURO-DOLLAR: Post US FOMC Wednesday EUR/USD slippage continued through
Thursday's session with rate extending its corrective pullback from $1.1798 to
$1.1639 ahead of the close. This easing tone continued into early Asia as rate
marked a low of $1.1633 before EUR/JPY demand provided a counter and allowed
rate to edge back to Y1.1649. Rate eased to $1.1638 ahead of Europe only to meet
fresh demand which has lifted it to a fresh intraday high of $1.1651 at writing.
Bank models for month-end flow not throwing up any major signals, with some
already eyeing Monday's SOMA flow ($19bn) which historically boosts the USD.
Traders have noted that EUR/USD closed below its 21-, 50-, 55- and 100-dma's
which should add to the underlying heavier tone. Flash CPI at 0900GMT in focus,
especially after Germany data Thursday came in above forecasts with ECB Draghi
comments on inflation from earlier in the week noted. Market median headline
2.1%yy, core 1.1% yy. Germany Employment data also due for release at 0755GMT.
Standout large option expiry for today, strike $1.1630 for E4.26bn. Market also
on watch for Italian budget headlines. Support remains into $1.1630, resistance
suggested to be strong into $1.1700.