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DOLLAR-CANADA: ### POV: A STRONG EMPLOYMENT PRINT COULD BE ALL USD/CAD NEEDS TO
TARGET 2017 LOWS
-Friday's net employment change is expected at 10k, which would mark the lowest
overall employment growth for almost 18 months. The bulk of analyst submissions
were made before yesterday's Ivey PMI, which showed the employment sub-index
well above the 12m average (56.5 vs. 54.3). The out-dated analyst estimates
could, therefore, be lowballing when compared to more up-to-date figures.
-The net employment change figure has a strong track record: the last time it
missed expectations was the Jul'16 release - 17 months ago. Because of this, the
'average' release of the number over the past 12 months results in a -0.3% move
in USD/CAD after 30 minutes.
-USD/CAD has recovered close to 2% from the 2018 lows, but technical momentum is
still negative (50DMA fell below the 100DMA on Feb2). The 3 most profitable
strategies of the past 12 months (reversing DMI, Simple MA Weighted MA) suggest
sitting on the sidelines and awaiting further signals, which the Friday jobs
report may provide.